Did I just figure out why the Ivy League Conference is really not opting into the House settlement?

Diving Deeper Into House Settlement Roster Limits

Thank you for taking time out of your day to be here. This newsletter has turned into the go-to source for roster limit analysis, and I’m leaning into that some more this week. Here’s what you’ll find in this week’s issue:

• Roster limits - what we’re seeing in the Ivy League Conference

• College hockey - ticket sales data in a broader, football driven world

Pour yourself your favorite drink. Get comfortable. Let’s get into it.

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The Ivy League Conference and House Settlement

After last week's issue, I kept thinking about which schools are facing the largest amount of roster cuts. Sure, the usual suspects like Alabama, Michigan, and Ohio State are up there, but what really caught my eye were some Ivy League schools — Cornell at #10 and Harvard at #16. That definitely piqued my curiosity.

The Ivy League made headlines by being the first (and so far only) Division I conference to say they won’t be opting into the NCAA House settlement. Their official statement talks about “academic primacy” and focusing on the “student-athlete experience,” which sounds great, but honestly, I’m a bit skeptical.

Let’s zoom out for a second. The higher education industry is in the middle of a tumultuous period.

• Colleges across the country are dealing with shrinking enrollments thanks to lower birth rates (the so-called “enrollment cliff”).

• The Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling ended affirmative action, with Harvard right in the middle of it all. Early numbers from the Fall 2024 class show minority enrollment dipping at schools like Harvard.

• Lastly, we can’t ignore the Varsity Blues admissions scandal from 2019 where wealthy parents paid to have fake athletic credentials created for their children to get into elite universities like Stanford and Yale.

Here’s the kicker: Harvard and Cornell have some of the largest athletic rosters in Division I. If they’d joined the House Settlement, they’d have to cut a lot of athletes to drop down to the new roster limits. That means some students who got admitted to these elite institutions thanks to athletics — including legacy admits, those helping boost diversity, or students from wealthy families with fake athletic credentials but who might not meet the usual academic bar — could be out.

So, the Ivy League’s choice to opt out might actually be about holding onto that roster flexibility — keeping those spots open to admit a wider range of students through sports, whether for legacy, diversity, or other reasons. Perhaps “academic primacy” isn’t their chief concern, but their image and bottom line.

Now, playing devil’s advocate: maybe the Ivy League schools are simply content with how the current system works. They might not want to open the door to direct athlete compensation — not because they can’t afford it (let’s not forget those billion-dollar endowments), but because they don’t buy into the philosophical shift we’re seeing across college athletics. For a conference that’s built its identity around amateurism, tradition, and academics-first, maybe opting out of the House Settlement isn’t about dodging consequences — maybe it’s just staying the course.

It’s a tricky balancing act — juggling academic standards, diversity goals, and athletic competitiveness, especially in this post-affirmative action world. The House Settlement adds another twist to the story, forcing schools to rethink how many athletes they can keep on board.

Whatever happens next, it’s clear these roster rules won’t just shape teams on the field but could also reshape the student bodies behind them. I’ll be watching closely — and so should you.

House, Roster Limits, and Money 💰️ 

This week’s visualization isolates each sport for the Ivy League Conference institutions. You can see each school’s roster size (from their athletics website) as well as horizontal lines for roster limits, EADA roster amount, and the average roster size based on NCAA participation survey data.

Quick Takeaways:

• Football and Cross Country continue to be the primary source of excess athletes.

• The majority of schools are under the roster limit for each sport.

• If each school cut athletes down and up to the roster limits, the net effect would be less athletes overall for all institutions except Dartmouth (that is alot of open spots in Equestrian).

Analyst’s Desk

As my analysis from last week came from NCAA EADA data (using the latest, FY 2023 data), I wanted to go back and see who the actual student-athletes on these teams were. I went to each school’s athletics website, where they keep an archive of each team’s roster. I scraped each of these sites. A few caveats:

• For those schools that had heavyweight and lightweight rowing, I combined the rosters and applied the new roster limit.

• In a few cases there was not an FY 2023 roster page, in which case I used the roster from the following FY.

• The dashed line is the new roster limit

Quick Takeaways:

• Only two schools - University of North Dakota and University of Minnesota make the top 50.

• These two schools beat a few P4 Football teams - Houston (#52), UNC (#59), UConn (#60), the entire MAC, and several other G5 schools.

• Anyone else notice an FCS program (University of Montana) all the way up to #40?

Analyst’s Desk

I took the MFRS data I scanned for FY 2023 and filtered it down to ticket sales for ice hockey and football. From there I just trimmed it to the top 50 institutions.

📖 What I’m Reading/Listening To 🔉 

This week flew by so not much to share. Here’s this week’s best listens:

• NILosophy had what I thought was an interesting peak behind the curtain of agents and college athletes, their relationship, and how the market works.

• Split Zone Duo had a great interview with Extra Point’s Matt Brown.

Final Thoughts

Thanks for reading!

While I’m not sure I came to a definitive conclusion about why the Ivy League Conference is not opting into the House Settlement, there seems to be plenty to think about after looking at the data.

If you haven’t finished your drink of choice, now is the time. I’ll do the same as I salute you!

Until next time,

Greg Chick, PhD

Data Analyst

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